From what I’m reading, Israel is going to invade Lebanon and literally destroy Hezbollah once and for all. Here’s an article:
Tuesday, 18, July, 2006 (22, Jumada al-Thani, 1427)
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US Think-Tank Predicts Full-Scale Israeli Invasion of Lebanon
Siraj Wahab, Arab NewsJEDDAH, 18 July 2006 — An independent intelligence think-tank in the United States is predicting a full-scale Israeli invasion of Lebanon to root out Hezbollah, a move that could extend as far as southern Beirut.
The report was released on July 13 by the Texas-based Strategic Forecasting Inc. (Stratfor), a private company that provides global intelligence information to the business world. The report says that Israel is ultimately gearing up for a “major, sustained assault into southern Lebanon to eliminate Hezbollah”.
(Yesterday, Israeli ground troops entered Lebanon briefly to attack Hezbollah bases, but withdrew back into Israel after conducting the operations. Israeli government spokesman, Asaf Shariv, said the Israeli army chief of staff confirmed that ground troops had gone into Lebanon, if only briefly.)
Stratfor analysts say at the minimum the incursion would extend to the Litani River — the first natural barrier, roughly 20 miles into Lebanon — and perhaps all the way to southern Beirut. (The Litani River, called Nahr Al-Litani in Arabic, is an important waterway in southern Lebanon. It rises in the Bekaa Valley and empties in the Mediterranean Sea north of Tyre. Exceeding 140 km, it is the longest river that originates and flows entirely within the borders of Lebanon.)
“The advance might have been intended for July 16, when the reservists of the Israeli Northern Command who were just activated will have had 72 hours to spin up. However, since rockets fired from Lebanon hit Israel’s port city of Haifa on July 13, Israel’s 7th Armored, Golani and Barak Brigades might push ahead as far as the Litani and let the reservists catch up later,” said the report.
“If the IDF (Israeli Defense Forces) makes this push into Lebanon, the Golani Brigade likely will advance in the east, along the Syrian border to the Bekaa Valley. Its advance probably will be accompanied by air assaults delivering infantry units to the villages at the valley’s base. Penetrating the more populated areas further up the valley will involve difficult, urban fighting,” said the report.
According to the report, the Barak Brigade, which received the state-of-the-art Merkava Mark 3 tank last year, will advance up the coast along a difficult and potentially mined highway. A Merkava tank, the report noted, was destroyed on July 12 by a mine containing a powerful charge that could have been shaped to penetrate heavy armor.
“The 7th Armored Brigade will advance up the middle, ready to reinforce either the left or right flank. It also could encounter mines. Besides anti-tank mines, Hezbollah is thought to possess anti-tank missiles more advanced than the 1970s-era Soviet AT-3 Sagger anti-tank missile. If Hezbollah’s arsenal is sufficiently advanced and properly employed, it could effectively challenge Israeli armor,” the report continued.
The report also noted that the longer the Israelis wait to begin the invasion, the more brigades it will have mustered to assist in the advance and the increase of a likelihood of a push to southern Beirut.
Stratfor report also presented possible responses to a variety of scenarios if Syria were to be involved in the conflict. The report says Israel would go for devices to jam Syrian air defense radars and then launch an all-out onslaught to destroy Syria’s 80 MiG-29 and 10 SU-27 fighter aircraft.
“Syria has always crumbled when facing the IDF, and its air defense and pilot training regiments are certainly below par,” the report pointed out. “But nevertheless, Syria’s air defense network extends over much of southern Lebanon and poses a very real danger to IAF (Israeli Air Force) operations over Lebanon. Israel successfully devastated this air force in 1982 in a pre-emptive strike.”
If the Israelis decide that Syria may resist their efforts in Lebanon, the report says, “Israel will not hesitate to take the network out. (To the Israelis) a devastating pre-emptive strike is preferable to a protracted engagement with the whole air defense network at full alert — a much more complex endeavor that would detract from operations in Lebanon. As long as the Israelis leave Syrian assets intact, they fight with an exposed right flank.”
However, the report emphasized that Israel would welcome Syrian restraint and would not widen the conflict unless provoked.
“The near future will almost certainly see small firefights,” said the report, “as Israeli special forces reconnaissance units take up more positions inside Lebanon. Of course, the bulk of these units will go undetected. IDF shelling and airstrikes will continue unabated. Depending on Hezbollah’s endurance and survivability, their rockets will continue to fly as well.”
The Stratfor report also noted that the target of the assault was Hezbollah. If the substance of the report is accurate, it appears that Israel hopes to rout Hezbollah in Lebanon once and for all.
So far, however, Hezbollah has been able to withstand the Israeli air onslaught but fundamentally the ones to lose out at the end of the invasion will be the innocent elderly, children and women on both sides.
Barry Rubin, an Israeli columnist, said Israel was having trouble defending against Hezbollah attacks “because the Hezbollah offensive is based on surprise and mobility.”
“Hezbollah can hit where and when it wishes. Even military effectiveness is not important since they are satisfied if a missile hits anything in Israel,” he wrote in his latest column. “The missiles are the hardest, most sensitive problem. Hezbollah has many missiles that are easily moved and quickly fired.”
According to Rubin, the (Hezbollah) missiles’ high mobility make them hard to hit before firing and almost impossible to intercept in the air. “Their flight path is so fast, short, and low that defensive missiles — useful against those fired from further away (like from Iraq in 1991) — cannot work,” he added.