QED Tibet.
Yeah… but the people breaking away from the government wouldn’t be ethnic minorities but rather, the Chinese wealthy backed by foreign powers.
Basically, the argument is this: China has funded a lot of their growth through outright corruption, i.e. making bad loans to businesses a la Japan. Because of this, china will, inevitably, face an economic downturn sometime in the future, as happened to the rest of East Asia, who all had the same problem of basing their economies on social/political relations instead of making profits. When this happens, China will begin to come apart, for a simple reason: Chinese unity is not based on “Confuciast values” or national identity but rather, on money. More specifically, on the government’s promise to make people money. When the downturn happens and the government fails to do that, it will become every man for himself, and the Chinese wealthy will look to foreign powers to help them(since foreign investors will also be protecting their own interests at the same time). Independent Chinese wealthy being backed by foreign investors will become the new powers in China, and political control will be along regional lines being as different regions have different economic interests. So each region will effectively become its own nation-state, with the government struggling to regain/maintain control. This is the way China was before the Communist takeover.
Yes! Everybody hands over your women! If I got no women, your country will fall to my almighty 30 million forces. HAHAHA!:hahaha;:hahaha;:hahaha;
Anyway, I’ll spare you guys if you go to read my latest fan comic.http://agora.rpgclassics.com/showthread.php?t=30513
Now for some serious talk.
First of all, begin from the basic part. There are 4 types of civilization in the world, Agricultural Civilization, Maritime Civilization, Nomadic Civilization, as well as the latest emerging Industrial Civilization. Civilization from Greece, Rome to British, and even Japan are Maritime Civilization, While China, India are the biggist Agricultural Civilization in the world.
Characteristics of Agricultural society is that the main population of the country are farmers. The economy of Agricultural Civilization is nature economy, which means people grow food and eat themselves, there’s little needs for trading. People stay on one piece of land for generations, they may have a strong family value.
It isn’t one great saint Confucius who make the Confucian widely influential in China, It’s success is mainly from it’s agricultural culture root. Confucian reinforced the family value, and established a system of social relations that actually runs the country. And after thousands years, Confucian already stay deep inside the Chinese culture in every aspect of their life. As long as the basic society form didn’t change, burn some books and temples can’t really wipe it out. If you know Chinese history more, you’ll find that Mao is more like the Hongwu, the first emperor of Ming Dynasty, than a Communist revolutionaries. Because he is totaly a farmer, while Communism is rooted in Industrial soiety manufacturing workers.
China is a large nation, now it consist all the 4 kinds of society. But view from population, there are 500 million citizen and 800 million farmers, so the main part of the population are still agricultural, it’s still an Agricultural society. That means the root of confucian is still deep in this country, that “Confucian tradition” are still everywhere.
I find that you guys always view things in that “confucian traditions don’t meld too well with communist party rhetoric” way. Here’s another aspect.
When West colonists came to East Aisa, all the countries there experienced a painful defeat. They were shocked about how week and how backward they are, and this almost drive
all of them crazy. In Japan in Meiji Restoration, their goverment encouraged Japanese woman to have sex with westerners to change their low-grade genes.
At that time, China didn’t fall into that kind of serious self-denial, people still tried to defend thier value by only accept the new weapon. But this led to a more terrible failure, invaded by Japan. Then people blamed the old political system and Keju system, but the Revolution, the build of the new republic only let to a more desperat endless civil war. That’s when almost all the chinese feel despair, most people agreed it’s the traditional cultrue that impede China from advancing, they should abandon all the confucian cultrue if they want at least survive. When Japan invaded again in 1931, they have tank, airplane, Warships and carrier, while most of the Chinese army are only equiped with spear and blade. China’s self-denial reached a extreme point, and lasts till now.
One part of this self-denial led to self-hatred, some people just hate their Chinese status, their culture and their blood. They feel they are the most inferior people in the world, only touching something foreign can make them feel good. Marrying a foreigner or getting a foreign nationality makes them a better person. One extreme case is in Taiwan now, many people refuse to recognize their ancestors are from Fujian Province, and claimed that their history began in the Dutch occupation in 1601, Dutch bring them civilization.
Meanwhile “Chinese” also became a bad word around the world. Countries that used to use Chinese as their main language like Vietnam and Korean all turned to prohibit it. In 1951, when the US army arrived in Seoul, they found all the signboards on the streets are written in Chinese. They asked the local “Are you guys Chinese?”, and this greatly hurted the feeling of all the Koreans. From then on, Chinese are banned in both South and North Korean, even though they can’t read their own old books because all of those books were written in Chinese.
Another part of this self-denial and the discrimination led to stimulated nationalist. Most people demand the glory of old middle kingdom back badly. They want China to be saved, become a strong power of the world, and they’ll support whoever do whatever they can to reach this goal, even bears a tyranny. This has been cooling down a lot since this 30 years, but it’s still the main steam.
Though I myslf love Karl Marx’s theory more than an extreme nationalism. But Chinese Communist Party are actually supported by Nationalists much more than Communists, because as I mentioned above, China is still an agricultural society. The main slogan of Chinese Communist Party is not reach a Communisn world, but “Only we can save China”, and “Only we can find a way that lead to a rich and strong China”. Or it can be said that ruling status of Communist Party is at the mercy of Nationalists, if they fail the country, they’ll be kicked ass.
Attack the confucian is not because “confucian traditions don’t meld too well with communist party rhetoric”, but because Nationalists think it impede China from advancing. Communist Party did it to make Nationalists happy. In fact, it’s ture that part of the confucian is too old and need to be abandoned, it did hinder China from Changing to a morden country. We should take some of its old wisdom, but do not blind believe it as a religion. You know not everyone can calm down and view like this in an extreme self-denial and desperation many years ago.
Part of the reason for this is what I said above, self-denial and lack of self-confidence. Many of them think Chinese themself is low-grade in the first place, pretty retarded.
Lifestyle is one part, but that a consuming lifestyle which needs money. If money is not the main concern, then why those girls do aim at Japanese or Americans, not Vietnamese, Philippines or Tanzanians?
If I date a girl, I want her at least a smart girl. So I don’t really mind if you guys come to China to have a sex trip for some “begging for a foreigner” girls. If you happened to come to Wuhan, just tell me, I can show you around.
One thing you need to be careful is that some of the small ethnic groups has some wield rules tradition. The goverment don’t want to piss these people off so they recognize those tradition as special law. I know some one who had a sex trip but then he’s been locked up in a ethnic group village, facing the rule “after you have sex with a girl, if you do not marry her you can also lose a leg for exchange”. So watch out.
China is still agricultural country. It’s economic growth is not a mystery but simplely a process of industrialization and urbanization. In 1990, China’s population is 100 million citizen and 900 million farmers, and now is 500 million citizen and 800 million farmers. The goal is slowly moving farmers to the cities and towns, leaving only less than 20 million agricultural population, because we only need that many.
So China will not actually lack labour force, and the expansion of the cities, the built of new facilities, and the new labour force will provide a 5% to 6% basic economic growth in the next 20 or 30 years. Considering there will also be new technologies, new over sea interests, the day China face a real serious economic stagnation is still far away.
I think military action for that Taiwan problem is a good choice and it actually well prepared. But since the government still have a high support rate, and there is no danger of a sudden declaration of Taiwan independence right now, the military action is saved for the future. Not only money, war too can be saved for the future. When the government lose their support rate, they may lauch a attack and pleased the Nationalists.
The problem is that the government don’t want to “waste” money to pay the police. They only give them 10% of the funding that needed, and let the police collect the rest themself from penalty. So on one hand the police will attack illegal copy and prostitution, on the other they will also let them live.
From 1949 to now, every year, there are hundreds of predictions about China will collapse, I grow up hearing this kind of predictions, none of them came true yet. And this year is the first year I hear more “US will collapse” predictions more than China.
There’s many times China fall into small pieces in history, but every time its from a private army problem. If there’s no private army, it’s almost impossible for anyone to oppose the central goverment.
Also, the central government have its thousands years expierence. To prevent the regional power from getting together, central goverment let the local Communist Party and the government build 2 system, watching each other. They also let the local officials frequently mobilize, do not let them stay in one province for a long time. If local officials do not have time to build a big relationship net, the chance of them gather power or even corrupts is much lower.
You may also view it in a dynasty change way. Same history happens again and again. It’s true every kind of society has its limit, it will break and rebuild sooner or later. But also learn from history that Chinese society break and rebuild every 300 years, there’s almost no exception. If it’s true, there’s still 200 years to go.
Please tell me someone else finds this to be a horrible idea. You know who wanted to control what kind of people were born? Hitler.
You cannot pick and choose who deserves to be born? We don’t need a master race of geniuses. Even if there were a shitload of people born that were perfect, they would still want a lot more unskilled labor to grow their food, make their clothes, and build their homes. We thrive on and depend on unskilled labor in larger amounts than we do on doctors and rocket scientists.
Reducing so much would eventually cause biological problems from interbreeding within a limited gene pool.
Any attempt to do this would effectively destroy any concept of the sanctity of human life. And there is no way people will give up the basic human right to have a family.
I just finished a huge paper on the subject of overpopulation, and there are better ways to try to fix the world than fucking with nature.
If there was a scientifically created human race would you have been born?
Heh. Such a complicated issue.
I think China will eventually become a democratic republic, because it is the only way that China can continue to exist as a single nation, and it’s the only way they can continue making money. “Republics end by wealth; monarchies end by poverty” and all that. Of course, that doesn’t excuse what’s going on in Tibet, or any of the other nasty things the people in charge do. Nor does it mean that China won’t do some pretty nasty things in the future.
The real question is, “What can my government do to encourage and speed the democratization of China?”
Could you clarify what you’re saying?
Sun has some interesting comments, but you can pretty much ignore him when it comes to foreign policy issues. He (and most of his compatriots) don’t really have a clue about China’s actual foreign policy. I’m sure he probably believes China will attack Japan and take over that country too at some point. As long as the Communists are in charge, you will not see a battle between China and Taiwan. I think it is even possible in our life time that a true reconciliation will be made. The communists occassionally pretend to pander to the nationalists, by letting people riot against the Japanese or the French or whatever, but they do not let the protests go on for a long time, but they will not allow the nationalist fervor to control policy. Ever. The real danger lies in the communists losing their grip on the country as a whole and the nationalists somehow taking power. Ironically enough, a democratic China would likely be far more nationalist and prone to making stupid ploys like attacking Taiwan. As it is now, Taiwan brings in way too much capital and business know-how. Most of the factories in Southern China that fueled the economic miracle were started with Taiwanese capital. China’s leadership also looks to Taiwan as an example of how a prosperous, democratic China might look.
Not to say I dont’ support democratic freedoms for China, but we should be careful what we wish for. Democratic processes don’t always produce the results that we in the west want. Just look at Iran, or Palestine, or Pakistan. A democratic China would likely be far more willing to flaunt its position on the global stage than the conservative communists.
I like how you think. But you have to remember, Iran and Palestine have valid reasons to distrust America.
I am divided on the middle east. On one hand, I hate how my gov’t (USA) is dedicated to keeping us dependent on a group of people who are, directly and indirectly, devoted to destroying us. That’s what “Death To America” means. Even Nazi Germany, not the most sane bunch, had the foresight to either secure fuel nearby or start developing alternatives. I believe in compromise, moderation, and staying on the middle ground, but only with my friends and allies. There is no compromise, no middle ground, with “Death To America”. I say we develop alternatives, then let them kill each other, just like they always have.
On the other hand, I pity all those people in the middle east who have no infrastructure, no money, and no hope of escape from their plight.
An aside… I don’t think Islam is inherently violent, but I do think the middle east is. They were killing each other 5000 years ago, they’re killing each other today, and they’ll be killing each other tommorow.
The worst thing that could happen would be for China to lapse into anarchy. They lost some radioactive material about a month ago. Imagine all the nasty things that would disappear if China fell?
Doesn’t the US get something like a third of its oil imports from Canada now?
On the other hand, I pity all those people in the middle east who have no infrastructure, no money, and no hope of escape from their plight.
True, more aid is needed. If people were given adequate shelter and sanitation/electrical systems, they may not be shouting death to so and so and instead raise a family and build a proper life.
An aside… I don’t think Islam is inherently violent, but I do think the middle east is. They were killing each other 5000 years ago, they’re killing each other today, and they’ll be killing each other tommorow.
So is Europe, North America, Africa and the Far East. Your point?
It’s quite laughable if you think your cultural ancestry was war-free and got along fine and dandy with everyone. I don’t even need to know what yours is to know that your ancestors fought just as much.
I don’t rightly know. If you take an Arab, Israeli, Muslim, Jew, or whatever out of the middle east, they are just another person. Put them in the middle east, en masse, and mixed together, and they become raving lunatics.
Thousands of years ago, a king, Darius or Xerxes or someone or other died. His successor was killed by person A, who was in turn killed by his successor person b, who was in turn killed by his successor person c,…
I think they have too much of the wrong kind of history, and all the half-clever wannabe politicians, the ones who use this history of violence to gain power are only making it worse. They are a symptom of the disease, and the disease is poverty. Poverty can’t be reduced, nor the burden of it alleviated, through charity alone. What’s needed is investment. Investment in things which will benefit the greatest number of people, investments which are intrinsically decentralizing: renewable electricity and fuel production, organic (or at least less-harmful) food production, transportation infrastructure (roads and rails), communication infrastructure (cable, fiber-optics, cell-towers), health care (hospitals, clinics, and hospital equipment manufacturing), and education.
I had this talk with a friend of mine. He thinks Islam, and the middle east, is going through changes similar to what Europe went through 700-300 years ago. I think the land itself somehow predisposes it’s inhabitants to violence.
EDIT
I just read that. Damn, that sounds crazy!
This is a thread on China, not the Middle East. If you want to shit up the boards with your raving ideas about how geographical locations can somehow cause otherwise normal people to turn to violence, make your own thread, or preferably, go join Something Awful and I’ll see you in LF.
I’d have to agree with you on the infrascructure comments you made before this, but I’d have to agree with your friend more on this comment.
The middle east is going through a sort of dark age, meanwhile in the european dark age the Northern parts of Africa and the middle east were the bastions of learning and knowledge (which was preserved from the many book burnings of Europe). Now (and this is according to my Egyptian classmate) it’s become the opposite where many people in the “west” seek to learn more and many people in the middle east prefer a blissful, intolerant ignorance. That’s not to say intolerant ignorance is entirely weeded out in the West mind you.
zeppelin: If you don’t want this stuff in your thread, just ask a mod to put it into a different one.
The Middle East is only one of many violent areas in the world. For instance, the Democratic Republic of Congo has been been undergoing a civil war for the past 10 years that’s experienced the sort of atrocities that make the stuff that’s happened in the Mideast look like child’s play. The difference is, the Mideast gets all the press because we’re involved over there. Most Americans don’t seem to be as interested in the violence in Africa/Asia.
As for the “land causes violence”, actually, that is not too off mark if you look at it the right way. A culture’s history causes its patterns of behavior; history is mostly caused by geography. Its easy for America to have enlightened values because we are protected by two oceans, a friendly power to the north and a weak one to the south. As a result we’ve had mostly a peaceful history, with some outbursts but not endemic violence. One reason Latin america and Africa are so screwed up is becaues of the presence of abundant natural resources in their lands, they were colonized and forced to live within a mercantilist system that did not care about quality of life or internal industrialization but just resource exportation. And I don’t want to go into too much detail, but that system really screwed them up and left them stunted in a lot of ways.
Also, don’t discount the way geography shapes not only history but current times. Nations with abundant, extremely valued resources tend to be ridden with internal conflict, and exploited by foreign powers. If you look at the conflicts between the Shiites and Sunnis and Kurds, its usually over the areas rich with soil. Geography can also be to blame for radical Islam - because of the oil, America and other powers supported totalitarian regimes in the Mideast. When people feel disconnected from their ruling powers, they tend to turn to religion and become radicalized. American talking heads will never admit this, but radical Islamic terrorists are motivated by the desire to topple American-supported Arabic dictatorships, not “because they hate our way of life”.