As much as I hate being the bringer of bad news, I’m a bit surprised at the lack of a thread about the fact that North Korea now claims to have successfully <a href=“http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6033457.stm”>tested a nuclear weapon</a>.
Meanwhile, on the bright side, some experts are speculating that it’s just a fraud. I’d link it, but I can only find that info in Swedish sources. Curious.
Canadian newspapers are saying they really did it.
From what I’ve read so far,they did it. There was recorded seismic activity at the time and it was different from an earthquake. This is bad too since I’ve heard it could have a bad ripple affect on other countries and their nuclear programs.
This quote from Bush is so funny and ironic, I don’t know where to begin: “President Bush said North Korea has ‘defied the will of the international community,’”. Bush is really one to talk about defying the international community.
It could be a fraud, but that would mean they a) caused a sizeable earthquake with conventional explosives, or b) waited for a natural earthquake with its epicentre in North-Korea. Besides, why lie about it? The only thing it’s done is attract international rage and if it is a fraud they don’t even have anything levy with.
I think it’s highly unlikely that it’s a fraud. I’m going to write down today as a sad, sad day in the history of any-proliferation.
But didn’t Infonick just say it was different from an earthquake, which would rule out option B?
That doesn’t make any difference, rather it makes it even more unlikely that it’s a fraud.
It might be fraud, it might not be fraud. Enough explosives could emulate a nuclear weapon and this again could be part of North Korean mindgames, albeit an expensive one. If this were a nuclear weapon, its not a particularly strong one as the US and France haveestimated the explositon was less than 1 kiloton from the seismic effects that it had. This wouldn’t be a bad idea for the Koreans as it allows them to conserve on the little bomb material that they have so that the bulk would be conserved for larger bombs. This is still a very small nuclear explosion, if it is one and thus could be emulated by non nuclear weapons.
It is also important to note that the North Korean leadership has psychological problems to say the least and they are known to try to mess with people’s heads with the way they negotiate, make threats and conduct tests.
Nevertheless, were this to truly be a real nuclear test, this is bad for the North Koreans, I have no clue what it is they expect to get out of it. All it does is further reduce the amount of aid and material they have to do anything and stimulate its neighbours like Japan to be more militaristic than it is already leaning to be because of who’s in charge, which also isn’t good. Then the South Koreans and the Chinese and the Russians go on alert.
This is serious for the world. Nuclear North Korea could mean a Nuclear Korean War. Let’s face it, the mental state of North Korea’s leader is not exactly stable, and to be honest, I know too many saber rattlers are up in washington, despite my being a conservative Republican.
We should have nipped this is the bud sooner. I can only pray that it does not push the third world war.
The greatness of the new modern international community is its complete inability to do anything useful (see: Rwanda, Sudan, etc.)
I agree completely. The funny thing is, that’s how the League of Nations was described as in my US history classes. Wheee!
The North Korean leadership is not as mentally unstable as it appears. As Sin pointed out, they use irrationality as a bargaining strategy - if we don’t know what they’re gonna do next, it makes it harder to pigeonhole them amd box them into some kind of agreement.
As for why they want nuclear weapons, the simple answer may be pride. Why did India want nuclear weapons? Why did Iran? They’re all countries who want to be taken seriously by what are considered to the head countries of the world, and they think the only way they can do it, or at least the way they can get tons of respect really fast, is by acquiring nuclear weapons. Its a pride thing.
The remaining members of the Axis of Evil our wonderful President warned us about now see what happens to the owners of weapons of mass-destruction.
If you don’t have “weapons of mass-destruction”, as Mr. Hussein of Baghdad, they will think you’re lying and you will be invaded and overthrown.
If you do have “weapons of mass destruction”, as thought of Mr. Hussein of Baghdad, you will be invaded and overthrown.
I guess if you’re in the Axis of Evil, you might as well have nukes, because it doesn’t matter. And what is a Weapon of Mass Destruction? Between nuclear weapons and various sorts of biological diseases (especially non-contagious things like anthrax)… It’s like conflating a machine gun with a penknife or conflating a machine gun with… well, a nuclear bomb.
This sucks and all, but it won’t be so bad if it helps the Dems retake control of Congress.
I’m all for being negative in situations like this, and I do agree that it’s a very dangerous situation. Still, I don’t really see (for once :P) how this could lead to a possible WW3. If anything, it seems to bring unity between countries that haven’t been on the best of terms for a while, like China and Japan. When even India and Pakistan can agree on something, as they now do in frowning at North Korea, there’s a weird kind of bad situation.
The countries immediately around North Korea will likely band together to ensure their collective safety, but like the article said, the most dangerous aspect is that North Korea will trade the nuclear device in the black market.
You’ve said it perfectly. Weapons of mass destruction were just a pretext for invading Iraq. It didn’t matter how much Saddam Hussein complied with neoconservative demands - nothing he could do would ever be enough, because they were going to start the war no matter what he did. The North Koreans saw this and made the quite reasonable conclusion that they would never be left alone even if they disarmed, and that it is therefore better to stay armed.
I heard in the news today it was a 15Kton bomb. That was in the TV though, take it with a grain of salt.
Going nuclear was a good move for N. Korea. Being able to wipe out a city if you get attacked provides good leverage, even if you can will get leveled immediately thereafter. Especially considering N. Korea is governed by people whom I wouldn’t trust to see the consequences of using nuclear weapons.
They could sell nuclear technology, however unaccounted for ex-CCCP nuclear devices pose a greater risk according to most articles I’ve read.
Concerning the “axis of evil”, ahem, if Syria was nuclear it would be too glad to let the world know. Why doesn’t Bush just come out and say “You ain’t with us, you’re against us, punks” and invade as usual (rhetoric question)?
That is a major reason for countries to get nuclear weapons. The problem is that this brings a bunch of sanctions and gets pretty much the whole world against them. It was a bad move since it upsets the stability of the region and weakens their relationships with other countries. Before it could use the possibility of getting them as leverage, but this just shows that they’ll do whatever they want and brings the world more against them. This could also bring a bunch of sanctions that could severly damage North Koreas development. What is the point of having the power to wipe out a city when you have the whole world against you. This is also a problem since it could get some others countries to further pursue or start up nuclear programs and get rid of the benefit of having nuclear weapons. It just creates more problems in the world and makes it less stable. The whole reason that Russia got nuclear weapons was because two American scientists were afraid of one country having nuclear weapons. Well, we see how well that went. It just helped further the Cold War and got us close to a nuclear holocaust.
That is one of the reason why this is so bad and why many countries are pushing for non-proliferation.
If Bush just invades NK, then Japan or South Korea might get nuked or nukes might get into terrorist hands and end up in New York or Los Angeles, despite the fact that the entire northern Korean peninsula would glow in the dark for a few decades.
The Russians said it was 5-15 kilotons. The Americans and the French say it was .5 kilotons.
I’m not so much worried about this as I am the new Chinese internet. That could destroy things so much more nicely and cleanly than any nuclear weapons, and prevent any retaliation, so it’s much more likely. It could crash the entire world economy and computer systems in a day, meaning everybody is at China’s mercy. Although, it would probably lead to a complete breakdown in social order and worldwide Chaos while China tried to organize the mess it created and fell apart under the stress.