And the shit starts to hit the fan. I guess tear gas is better than bullets.
Oops, NYT wall. Is any of these links a good summary of the affair? I’ve seen a couple of things, but eh, TV isn’t the best medium about int. news.
This has recently caught my attention and I’ve been trying to keep up with it.
So what are we looking at here? Let’s say the Iranians revolt and fight the current regime, what then? Would this turn into a civil war or be quickly shut down?
I’m basically interested in the possible scenarios that might occur from all of this.
CNN is just yanking stuff from the internet and putting it up on TV, and they’re saying Mousavi is pretty much willing to become a martyr (which I doubt for various reasons). Him dying would probably escalate things even further than they are now and I really don’t see it happening (but it could).
Those are good questions Ultra. Its not clear if civil war would occur because the protesters aren’t violent. This is generally good because we don’t want Iran to turn into Somalia.
CNN and everyone else have no other choice but to do that because the reporters aren’t allowed out of their hotels.
Its unknown the extent to which the protesters are or aren’t being manipulated by other power factors in the Iranian government. . I hope it doesn’t get more violent, though - this is totally my opinion, but at this point this seems to have more potential to turn into something like Tianenmen than a civil war.
And actually, re: “other power factors in the government”
One of Iran’s most powerful men may be playing a key role behind closed doors in the country’s escalating postelection crisis.
Former president and influential cleric Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani has made no public comment since Iran erupted into confrontation between backers of hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and reformists who claim he stole re-election through fraud.
But Iranian TV has shown pictures of Rafsanjani’s daughter, Faezeh Hashemi, speaking to hundreds of opposition supporters. And Rafsanjani, who has made no secret of his distaste for Ahmadinejad, was conspicuously absent from an address by the country’s supreme leader calling for national unity and siding with the president.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jqWP8PXaBUwyqRa30GRUJAsd4jcwD98UL81G0
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jun/21/iran-protest-deaths
10 people reportedly killed. Protesters called terrorists on TV.
The plot thickens: vote count > total voter numbers in several cities. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/23/world/middleeast/23iran.html?_r=1&hp
Youtube all over the protests: http://www.youtube.com/citizentube?feature=ticker
CIA at it again? Only been 56 years.
The CIA doesn’t have anything to do with the protests and the resulting crackdowns in Tehran.
However, our government is probably fighting a proxy war against Iran, via Kurdish Separatists.
Do you think there is no chance US government could have played a role in the propaganda?
Yes, and maybe the Baluchistan Brigade of God group, and the Azeris in the northwest, and the Ahwazi Arabs in the southwest.
This is what Fred Burton, a former US state department counter-terrorism agent, said in the UK’s Telegraph interview in 2007: “The latest attacks inside Iran fall in line with US efforts to supply and train Iran’s ethnic minorities to destabilize the Iranian regime.”
I wouldn’t be surprised if The American Enterprise Institute was/is involved in this potential color revolution.
Going back to page #1 here.
Judging by how fast the scavengers jumped on the fresh kill in Iraq, that is an excellent point. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/19/world/africa/19iht-19iraq.13817574.html
As for the proportion of the world’s untapped oil reserves owned by Iran, the key word here is probably. But even if we consider only proven oil reserves, Iran is ranked 3d in the world, and this makes it a juicy target.
And slightly off topic, I would appreciate if you could provide the source that indicates the amount/proportions by country of the world’s untapped/probable oil reserves.
What specific propaganda are you talking about? There’s a lot out there.
EDIT
I’m just saying, yes, we have a history and the CIA did some stupid crap in the past, but I’m pretty sure that if a meteor fell on Tehran and destroyed the city, the CIA and the USA would be blamed.
Lmao, I know this post is old and irrelevant… but really? You think 100% of the world’s untapped oil is in Iran and Iraq? I’m pretty sure almost none of this has anything to do with oil, and I’m just reading this thread casually.
The whole reason why “we care about the Mideast” is because of oil. Its connected to almost everything in that region(the Israeli-Palestinian conflict notwithstanding). Oil forces us to support dictatorships and supply them weapons. These dictatorships then cause the Mideast people to hate us. Which causes terrorism. Oil is why we go to war with Mideast countries. Oil is also why we even give a rat’s ass what goes on in Iran - not so much because of the untapped or undiscovered oil reserves, but because Iran borders and to some extent can control the Persian Gulf, the world’s most crucial oil transportation hub. Iran is also geographically and politically in a position to potentially dominate other oil-rich countries - Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the small Gulf Arab states.
Oil is also, ultimately, the reason why the American public pays attention to the Mideast. Most people care about what goes on over there because its a region of the world we frequently come into conflict with. Because of oil.
Also Hades, seriously, improve your post etiquette. I know this is the Internet and everything… but c’mon.
Having an excellent motive and a really shitty track record are not usually reasons NOT to suspect someone.
Fine, I’ll start babying everyone from now on.
Oil is a factor, but it’s definitely not the only one. This situation is far more dynamic than that.
I don’t think you read the original exchange involving my oil post.
Originally Posted by Curtis
- Iran borders the Persian Gulf, one of the most strategic transportation hubs in the world because of its access to the area that provides the world’s largest oil supply.
- Iran itself probably has 1/2 to 2/3rds of the.
- Iran borders and has tremendous influence over Iraq, which has the other 1/3rd to 1/2 of untapped oil reserves. And which we have 100,000+ of our citizens stationed in who are being killed in part because of Iranian efforts.
Yeah, it’s all about the oil, pretty much
That’s what I was saying: oil is why “we bother with Iran”. Which is pretty accurate, considering the number of other tyrannical, violent regimes our government doesn’t give a crap about. I have no idea what you think I was trying to say.
You give the CIA too much credit and internal Iranian players too little if you pin this on America.
Agreed. If we orchestrated the protests in Iran, we would’ve fucked something up by now.
EDIT
Besides the things already fucked up.